Carson City area weather: Thunderstorms through midweek prompt wildfire concerns

Photo from C-Hill, 11:40 a.m. Monday via alertwildfire.org
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Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon for Carson City and surrounding counties, along with an uptick in thunderstorm activity likely Tuesday and Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service.

After thunderstorms brought heavy rain and flooding Sunday evening around Reno, Sparks, Storey and Lyon counties, there will be similar storm chances Monday across western Nevada and northeastern California. Anywhere from .5 to 1.1 inches of rain fell Sunday evening over the Reno area, with hail 1-inch in diameter.

Moving forward into Monday, forecasters say similar storms will likely be centered over Douglas and Lyon counties, bringing a 25 to 30 percent chance of thunderstorms, then another 15 to 30 percent cluster of thunderstorms spanning from northeastern California through northern Washoe County.

Surrounding cities like Reno, Carson City, Minden and Fallon can’t be ruled out either with a 15-20 percent chance of getting a thunderstorm, according to the weather service.

Weather models suggest similar impacts from these thunderstorms like small hail, torrential rainfall, and frequent lightning, with daily storm chances each afternoon through Wednesday, forecasters said.

FIRE CONCERNS

As for fire danger, thunderstorms and subsequent lightning ignitions continue to be the main concern. Although the potential for dry lightning is reduced today as storm coverage/lightning density is limited. A weak low pressure passage around midweek will likely increase thunderstorm potential Tuesday and Wednesday as chances increase to 30 to 50 percent, forecasters said.

Tuesday afternoon appears to be the better day for dry lightning, but coverage is favored to be greatest on Wednesday when storms transition to the wetter side. There are also hints of nocturnal lightning Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for northeastern California, forecasters note.

A drying trend will mitigate thunderstorm impacts starting Thursday with isolated lightning possible in favored areas each afternoon. A stronger trough may advance across the region sometime this weekend, which would increase afternoon breezes and elevate fire concerns.

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