Ravens vs. Texans scouting report for AFC divisional round: Who has the edge?

The Ravens enjoyed the weekend off they earned by claiming the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Texans thrashed the Cleveland Browns and Joe Flacco, 45-14. Who will have the edge when these division winners meet in the divisional round of the playoffs Saturday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium?

Ravens passing game vs. Texans pass defense

The last time we saw Lamar Jackson, he played perhaps the best game of his career — 18-for-21, 321 yards, five touchdowns — as the Ravens routed the Miami Dolphins, 56-19, to clinch the first-round bye and home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Jackson made himself a strong favorite to win his second NFL Most Valuable Player Award with that performance. His next hurdle, and the one he’ll be judged on, is to play his best football in the playoffs, something he could not do the last time he won MVP honors in 2019.

Jackson will throw to a more dynamic set of targets this time, especially if tight end Mark Andrews is healthy enough to return from an ankle injury that cost him six games and if rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers (who led the Ravens with 77 catches and 858 receiving yards) can produce on a sore calf that kept him out of the team’s bye-week practices. Second-year tight end Isaiah Likely stepped up to catch five touchdown passes in the games Andrews missed. The Ravens signed wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to star at this point in the season; he played a major role in the Los Angeles Rams’ run to the Super Bowl two years ago. Jackson’s pass protection faltered at times this season as veteran tackles Ronnie Stanley and Morgan Moses played through knee and shoulder injuries, respectively. But the offensive line kept Jackson clean in the Ravens’ resounding wins over the Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers. Even if the Texans reach him, Jackson was excellent against pressure this season, using his unmatched scrambling to buy time for downfield looks.

He will take on a Houston pass defense that ranked 23rd in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) during the regular season but contributed four sacks and two pick-sixes in the wild-card victory over the Browns. The Texans have a pair of stellar young talents in cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (five interceptions, 13 passes defended in 11 games) and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. (seven sacks, 22 quarterback hits). Defensive end Jonathan Greenard led the team with 12 1/2 sacks and 15 tackles for loss. The Texans blitz on just 21% of dropbacks, so they won’t give Jackson big-strike opportunities by overcommitting, but they were vulnerable to big plays this year, allowing 6.5 yards per attempt, sixth-worst in the league. Flacco completed 15 of 19 passes for 172 yards in the first half last Saturday before unraveling in the third quarter. Despite their vulnerability, the Texans stood firm on crucial downs, ranking fifth in third-down defense and 12th in red-zone defense.

EDGE: Ravens

Texans passing game vs. Ravens pass defense

C.J. Stroud added to one of the finest rookie quarterback seasons in league history with an impeccable playoff debut — 16 of 21, 274 yards, three touchdowns — against the Browns’ top-ranked defense. The No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft is outstanding on intermediate and deep attempts but threw just five interceptions. The key to stopping Stroud is pressure. He completed just 53.2% of his passes and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt against pressure, down from 69.1% and 9.3 yards per attempt from a clean pocket, according to Pro Football Focus. The Browns managed just five hurries and one quarterback hit against an offensive line led by left tackle Laremy Tunsil. The Ravens did much better in their season-opening win over Houston with five sacks and 10 quarterback hits. When Stroud has time to probe, wide receiver Nico Collins (80 catches on 109 targets, 1,297 yards) is by far his favorite target. Tight end Dalton Schultz (35 first downs and five touchdowns on 59 catches) is reliable. The Texans will be without two key playmakers in injured wide receivers Tank Dell and Noah Brown.

Stroud will face a Ravens pass defense that ranked first in DVOA, allowed just 4.7 yards per attempt and led the league in sacks and takeaways. Coordinator Mike Macdonald’s defense achieved that production despite blitzing on just 21.9% of dropbacks, a testament to the talents of defensive tackle Justin Madubuike (13 sacks, 33 quarterback hits) and veteran edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney (9 1/2 sacks, team-high 71 pressures) and Kyle Van Noy (nine sacks on just 328 pass-rush snaps). The Ravens also attack quarterbacks with a deep secondary led by do-it-all All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton, who’s expected to return from a knee injury against the Texans. They will hope to have cornerback Marlon Humphrey, who hurt his calf in the Week 17 win over the Dolphins and did not practice Tuesday or Wednesday.

EDGE: Ravens

Ravens running game vs. Texans run defense

The Ravens led the league in rushing and rush DVOA but lost a big-play element when rookie Keaton Mitchell suffered a season-ending knee injury. Gus Edwards averaged a career-low 4.1 yards per carry but did his most efficient work near the goal line, scoring 13 touchdowns. Justice Hill (4.6 yards per carry, 28 receptions) is the team’s most versatile running back. The Ravens signed four-time Pro Bowl selection Dalvin Cook for the playoffs. Will he contribute after a dismal regular season with the New York Jets? Jackson led all quarterbacks with 821 rushing yards despite carrying just 9.3 times per game, down from 11.7 in his 2019 MVP season. It will be interesting to see if he calls his own number more frequently at crucial moments in the postseason.

The Ravens will face one of the league’s top run defenses, led by linebacker Blake Cashman (106 tackles, nine for loss). The Texans allowed an anomalous 227 rushing yards in clinching a playoff berth against the Indianapolis Colts but gave up 79 yards or fewer in five of their past six games. They held the Browns to 56 yards on 20 attempts.

EDGE: Even

Texans running game vs. Ravens run defense

Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik learned under Kyle Shanahan, so he likes his zone runs, but the Texans averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt, 29th in the league. Their top back, Devin Singletary, played well against the Browns with 66 yards on 13 carries, but he’s not much of a breakaway threat. Stroud ran for just 167 yards on 39 attempts in the regular season.

The Ravens allowed an uncharacteristic 4.5 yards per attempt as Macdonald often went with lighter boxes, sacrificing strength against the run to prevent chunk passing plays. It’s difficult to imagine he’ll switch up this approach against an offense that’s far deadlier through the air than on the ground. That might mean Singletary will have room to work in the first half, even with Pro Bowl linebackers Roquan Smith (158 tackles) and Patrick Queen (133 tackles) patrolling sideline to sideline and nose tackle Michael Pierce plugging the middle. The Ravens held the Texans to 72 yards on 23 carries in Week 1.

EDGE: Ravens

Ravens special teams vs. Texans special teams

After a rough start, the Ravens jumped to No. 3 in special teams DVOA thanks to another solid season from Justin Tucker (32 of 37 on field goal attempts with four of his misses from beyond 50 yards) and excellent work from returners Hill and Tylan Wallace. It will be interesting to see if they use returner Devin Duvernay, who’s ready to return from a back injury.

Houston ranked seventh in special teams DVOA thanks to excellent punt coverage, a 26.7-yard average on kickoff returns and kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn’s accuracy (27 of 28 on field-goal attempts, including five of six from 50 yards or beyond).

EDGE: Ravens

Ravens intangibles vs. Texans intangibles

Houston played its best game of the season against the Browns and will come to Baltimore on a confident high thanks to Stroud’s precocious poise. Coach DeMeco Ryans led the Texans to a seven-game improvement in his first year. They went 4-4 on the road, including stinkers against the Carolina Panthers and New York Jets, but won at Indianapolis with a playoff berth on the line. They could face a disadvantage as a dome team playing in mid-20s temperatures at M&T Bank Stadium.

The Ravens will aim to avoid repeating the flat start that doomed them against the Tennessee Titans the last time they earned a first-round bye in 2019. They were the best team in the league by the end of the regular season, led by the likely MVP in Jackson and one of the league’s most seasoned winners in coach John Harbaugh. They needed the extra week of rest they earned because key players such as Hamilton, Humphrey and Flowers were nursing injuries. For all their success this season, the Ravens have won just one playoff game with Jackson, so home fans will have their guards up as kickoff nears Saturday.

EDGE: Ravens

Prediction

The Ravens will enter as heavy favorites and deservedly so given their dominant finish to the regular season. The Texans established themselves as a dangerous team against the Browns. Stroud is a poised, deadly passer, and Houston has young defensive stars to complement him. But Jackson will come out firing against a vulnerable pass defense, and the Ravens will come up with enough different looks to keep Stroud less comfortable than he was against Cleveland. They will begin their Super Bowl push with a convincing victory. Ravens 31, Texans 20