NFL playoff picture: Breaking down the crowded AFC race with four weeks to go
Just four weeks remain in the NFL regular season, which means it’s time to start thinking about the playoffs.
While the Ravens (10-3) have put themselves atop the AFC after Sunday’s thrilling overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams, there’s a crowded field forming behind them. Eleven AFC teams are above .500, including six with 7-6 records, but only the top seven will earn a playoff berth.
If the Ravens finish with the conference’s best record, they get the first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason. If they finish behind the Miami Dolphins (9-3) — who host the Tennessee Titans on Monday night and travel to Baltimore on Dec. 31 — and still win the AFC North, there are several talented teams who could travel to M&T Bank Stadium for the wild-card round in January.
Here’s a look at AFC playoff picture if the regular season ended today:
1. Ravens (10-3, 1st in AFC North)
Remaining schedule: at Jaguars, at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers
Playoff odds, per New York Times: >99%
What’s working: Just about everything. Reserve wide receiver Tylan Wallace cemented a wild 37-31 win over the Rams with a 76-yard punt return in overtime, helping the Ravens take a half-game lead over the Dolphins in the race for the AFC’s top seed. Lamar Jackson delivered in the clutch, leading a 13-play, 75-yard drive late in the fourth quarter capped by a 21-yard touchdown pass to rookie Zay Flowers. With Flowers thriving, tight end Isaiah Likely stepping up in Mark Andrews’ absence and Odell Beckham Jr. turning back the clock of late, the Ravens seem better equipped than ever to win in the postseason with Jackson under center.
What isn’t: The Ravens’ biggest problem all season has been consistency. They seem to play up or down to their competition, though Sunday’s win was perhaps the most encouraging yet because of the team’s ability to overcome its mistakes in a playoff atmosphere. After stumbles earlier this season in close losses to the Colts, Steelers and Browns, late-game execution remains a potential Achilles’ heel.
2. Miami Dolphins (9-3, 1st in AFC East)
Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, vs. Jets, vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, vs. Bills
Playoff odds, per New York Times: >99%
What’s working: The offense, which is perhaps the league’s best. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill is on pace to become the first player to reach 2,000 receiving yards in a season, and Miami is rivaling the 2011 New Orleans Saints for the most yards per game in a single season with 428.4 entering Monday. Tua Tagovailoa is in complete command of coach Mike McDaniel’s scheme, ranking among the league leaders with 3,457 passing yards and 24 touchdowns in 12 games.
What isn’t: Mounting injuries. After losing budding pass rusher Jaelan Phillips for the season, the Dolphins placed linebacker Jerome Baker on injured reserve Sunday. Starting right guard Rob Hunt and safety Jevon Holland are also questionable to play Monday, and left tackle Terron Armstead has battled knee and ankle injuries throughout the season. Depth matters at this point of the season, and Miami’s will be tested.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5, 1st in AFC West)
Remaining schedule: at Patriots, vs. Raiders, vs. Bengals, at Chargers
Playoff odds, per New York Times: 98%
What’s working: Not much right now. The defending Super Bowl champions have lost two straight and three of their past four after a hot start seemingly put them in the driver’s seat for the top seed. Patrick Mahomes has surprisingly been part of the problem, having thrown three interceptions over the past four weeks, including one that halted a promising opening drive in Sunday’s 20-17 loss to the Bills.
What isn’t: The refs? Mahomes and coach Andy Reid both criticized the officials for a rarely called offside penalty against the offense that negated a dazzling 49-yard touchdown on a lateral from tight end Travis Kelce to wide receiver Kadarius Toney that would have given Kansas City the lead with just over a minute to play. Frustration seems to be mounting for Mahomes, who was visibly angry after the game.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5, 1st in AFC South)
Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Buccaneers, vs. Panthers, at Titans
Playoff odds, per New York Times: 92%
What’s working: Trevor Lawrence’s ankle, at least for the moment. After suffering what looked to be a serious injury in last Monday’s loss to the Bengals, the star quarterback started Sunday against the Browns and was understandably up and down. While he threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns, he was also intercepted three times in a 31-27 loss.
What isn’t: The defense. A week after being torched by Bengals backup quarterback Jake Browning, Jacksonville allowed 38-year-old Joe Flacco to throw for 311 yards and three touchdowns. The pass rush has been especially disappointing of late, recording just three sacks over the past two games.
5. Cleveland Browns (8-5, 2nd in AFC North)
Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Texans, vs. Jets, at Bengals
Playoff odds, per New York Times: 84%
What’s working: Flacco. Cleveland is 1-1 with the former Ravens star since he signed to the practice squad three weeks ago, and he’s earned enough of coach Kevin Stefanski’s trust to be declared the starter for the rest of the season over rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Browns defense has been good enough to win with four different starting quarterbacks this season, but Flacco provides the kind of steady hand this team needs to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2020.
What isn’t: The offensive line, which entered the season among the league’s best. Injuries have created a revolving door at tackle, forcing unproven players Dawand Jones, Christian Geron and James Hudson III to step in. Center Ethan Pocic left Sunday’s game with a stinger, leaving guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller as the only healthy starters.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6, 3rd in AFC North)
Remaining schedule: at Colts, vs. Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens
Playoff odds, per New York Times: 25%
What’s working: After back-to-back losses to the last-place Patriots and Cardinals, bright spots are hard to find. The defense has been good, if not great, for most of the season, but allowing three touchdown passes to backup quarterback Bailey Zappe in Thursday night’s 21-18 loss to the Patriots is inexcusable. At least defensive signal-caller Elandon Roberts is back from a groin injury and playing well to lead a banged-up group of linebackers.
What isn’t: The firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada hasn’t been the easy fix many fans were hoping for, as the Steelers are averaging just 14.7 points in the three games since Mike Sullivan took over play-calling duties. An ankle injury to starting quarterback Kenny Pickett certainly hasn’t helped. Backup Mitch Trubisky has posted a QBR of 35.3 this season, a mark that would rank above only Bryce Young and Zach Wilson among qualified quarterbacks.
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-6, 2nd in AFC South)
Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Falcons, vs. Raiders, vs. Texans
Playoff odds, per New York Times: 41%
What’s working: A lot, at least before Sunday. The Colts had won four in a row (albeit against weak competition) to jump back into the playoff race before suffering a 34-14 loss to the Bengals. Shane Steichen is building a compelling case to be Coach of the Year in his first season with the way he’s squeezed the most out of an offense led by inconsistent quarterback Gardner Minshew II and missing star running back Jonathan Taylor.
What isn’t: While the defense entered Sunday with the second-most sacks in the league, it has allowed nearly 30 points per game over the past three weeks.
8. Houston Texans (7-6, 3rd in AFC South)
Remaining schedule: at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Titans, at Colts
Playoff odds, per New York Times: 45%
What’s working: Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud was averaging 295 passing yards per game before throwing for just 91 yards in Sunday’s ugly 30-6 loss to the Jets. The No. 2 overall pick has been sensational, but the hits are starting to pile up. He’s been sacked 35 times this season and is in the league’s concussion protocol after exiting in the fourth quarter Sunday.
What isn’t: Mounting injuries on offense. In addition to Stroud, breakout wide receiver Nico Collins left Sunday’s game with a calf injury in the first quarter just two weeks after standout rookie receiver Tank Dell was lost for the season with a fractured fibula. Tight end Dalton Schultz was also ruled out Sunday with a hamstring injury, and offensive tackle Tytus Howard suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. If Stroud misses any time, it’s unlikely backup Davis Mills can lead Houston to the postseason.
9. Denver Broncos (7-6, 2nd in AFC West)
Remaining schedule: at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Chargers, at Raiders
Playoff odds, per New York Times: 50%
What’s working: Lately, it’s been the defense, which is surprising to say after it allowed 70 points in a game earlier this season. But takeaways have helped turn things around. Since Week 6, according to ESPN, the Broncos have forced 18 turnovers and allowed 12 touchdowns. They’ve won six of their past seven games and have the second-best odds to make the postseason of the non-division leaders, according to NYT.
What isn’t: Russell Wilson bounced back Sunday after throwing three interceptions in a loss to the Texans, but he is not living up to the massive contract he received from Denver before the start of last season. He’s still capable of occasional moments of brilliance, though much of the credit should go to wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who made a brilliant one-handed grab for his 10th touchdown catch of the season in Sunday’s 24-7 win over the Chargers.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6, 4th in AFC North)
Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, at Steelers, at Chiefs, vs. Browns
Playoff odds, per New York Times: 26%
What’s working: While the Bengals seemed hopeless after Joe Burrow’s season-ending wrist injury, backup Jake Browning has delivered two strong starts in a row to keep the team afloat. A lot of his 275 passing yards Sunday came on screens to running backs Joe Mixon and Chase Brown, but the 27-year-old former college star might just be good enough to help the Bengals earn a surprise playoff berth.
What isn’t: The emergence of the rookie Brown has been huge for the offense, which has struggled to run the ball for most of the season. The Bengals are averaging just 84.7 rushing yards per game, second-worst in the league, but Brown has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in a limited role and turned a screen pass into a 54-yard touchdown Sunday. He’s likely to receive a larger workload down the stretch.
11. Buffalo Bills (7-6, 2nd in AFC East)
Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, at Chargers, vs. Patriots, at Dolphins
Playoff odds, per New York Times: 39%
What’s working: Believe it or not, Josh Allen has been playing at an MVP-level for most of the season. The Bills’ record doesn’t reflect that, and Allen’s 14 interceptions are certainly unsightly, but he’s thrown 25 touchdown passes and rushed for a career-high 10 scores. Buffalo entered Sunday ranked third in offensive efficiency, per FTN’s defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), and Allen is the reason why.
What isn’t: Injuries continue to take their toll on the Bills’ defense, which is already without linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Tre’Davious White for the rest of the season. Pass rusher A.J. Epenesa exited in the first quarter Sunday shortly after batting a pass into the air and intercepting it, and safety Micah Hyde went down with a stinger late in the first half. There are also questions about Von Miller, who turned himself into police during the team’s bye week and is facing a charge of third-degree felony assault of a pregnant woman. It has often felt like a cursed season for the Bills, but perhaps Sunday’s huge win over the defending champs will be the spark they need.
