Staff picks for NFL divisional round: Chiefs vs. Bills, Packers vs. 49ers, Buccaneers vs. Lions
- January 19, 2024
Baltimore Sun staff writers pick every game of the NFL season. Here’s who they have winning in the divisional round of the playoffs:
No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers at No. 1 San Francisco 49ers (Saturday, 8:15 p.m., Fox)
Brian Wacker (172-106 season; 3-3 last week): Packers quarterback Jordan Love has thrown 21 touchdown passes and just one interception over his past nine games, seven of them victories. But the 49ers are well-rested off a bye, have an elite defense, coach Kyle Shanahan and one of the most complete and versatile offenses in the NFL going against a Green Bay defense that just gave up 510 yards to the Cowboys after ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in yards allowed. 49ers 27, Packers 10
Childs Walker (175-103 season; 2-4 last week): The Packers resurrected their season and have a bright future with Jordan Love at quarterback, but the 49ers are vastly more talented on both sides of the ball. 49ers 30, Packers 21
Mike Preston (165-113 season; 2-4 last week): Jordan Love has played well down the stretch and has displayed good touch on several passes, but the 49ers have a strong defense and are well-balanced on offense led by running back Christian McCaffrey. Plus, San Francisco has had a week off to rest. That will be too much for the Packers to overcome. 49ers 30, Packers 21
C.J. Doon (182-96 season; 2-4 last week): It’s usually a safe bet to pick the team with the better quarterback, and in this case that’s Green Bay. But the youngest team in the league isn’t quite ready to take down the San Francisco juggernaut, at least not this year. 49ers 28, Packers 23
Tim Schwartz (168-110 season; 4-2 last week): I picked the Packers to upset the Cowboys last week and I’m ready to pick them again in another stunner. Jordan Love is playing at an extremely high level as of late (21-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the past three months) and will keep it going to maintain the chaos in the NFC playoffs. Packers 28, 49ers 24
No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 3 Detroit Lions (Sunday, 3 p.m., NBC)
Wacker: It’s been more than 65 years since the Lions have won multiple games in the same postseason, and the surprising Buccaneers have won six of their past seven games overall. But expect both of those streaks to end behind a versatile Detroit offense that ranks fourth in yards per pass and fifth in yards per rush. Tampa Bay’s run defense is stout, but its secondary can be had. Lions 28, Buccaneers 17
Walker: A resurgent Baker Mayfield will do some damage against Detroit’s vulnerable pass defense, but the Lions will ultimately outmuscle their visitors. Lions 26, Buccaneers 20
Preston: Baker Mayfield has been surprising and inspiring, but let’s be honest: He doesn’t put a lot of fear into opposing teams. Jared Goff can get hot at times but he panics when he gets hit. Fortunately, the Lions have a bonafide running back in David Montgomery, who is a threat from anywhere on the field. Detroit isn’t physical up front on defense, but the Lions can harass quarterbacks, which is why they will win. Lions 24, Buccaneers 17
Doon: There are plenty of key pieces left from the Buccaneers team that won a Super Bowl with Tom Brady three years ago, but this Lions team is a lot more motivated than the reeling Eagles. Coordinator Ben Johnson’s offense will be too much for Baker Mayfield and company to keep up with. Lions 33, Buccaneers 26
Schwartz: The Buccaneers have been a great story this season, but the Lions are not trending in the same direction the Eagles were. Playing in front of a packed house eager to make more history will help Detroit, and the defense should get after Baker Mayfield and get the job done. Lions 31, Buccaneers 21
No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs at No. 2 Buffalo Bills (Sunday, 6:30 p.m., CBS)
Wacker: Finally, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has to go into an opposing stadium in the AFC playoffs. The Bills can draw confidence from their Week 14 victory in Kansas City, and their defense is rolling at the right time. But that defense is also banged up, Mahomes is humming and Kansas City’s defense has been even better, allowing the second-fewest points per game behind only the Ravens. Chiefs 24, Bills 21
Walker: Easily the toughest game to pick this weekend, but Josh Allen’s offense is a touch more dynamic than Patrick Mahomes’ this time around. Bills 24, Chiefs 23
Preston: It was interesting to see whether the Chiefs could turn on the switch, and they did last week in beating Miami. The Dolphins were already soft and they were even weaker in the cold weather in Kansas City. Quarterbacks take over this time of year and this should be a good matchup. Patrick Mahomes played well last week, and he’ll be a tough out. Both teams are used to the cold weather, but I like Mahomes over any quarterback in the NFL. Chiefs 24, Packers 21
Doon: It’s going to be Patrick Mahomes’ first true playoff road game, but that doesn’t scare me. Mahomes is unflappable, the Chiefs’ defense is outstanding and I don’t trust Josh Allen to avoid mistakes against defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Chiefs 27, Bills 24
Schwartz: Flip a coin. These teams are incredibly even — and each has well-known flaws. I’m taking the home team against Patrick Mahomes playing on the road for the first time in his playoff career. Josh Allen and the Bills are ready for the moment. Bills 35, Chiefs 31
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