NFL power rankings, Week 16: Ravens and 49ers set to battle for league’s top spot

Each week of the NFL season, The Baltimore Sun will rank all 32 NFL teams. The rankings will take into account not just weekly performance, injuries and roster depth, but how well each team measures up as Super Bowl contenders.

Here are the rankings heading into Week 16:

1. San Francisco 49ers (11-3, No. 1 last week)

Last week: Win vs. Cardinals, 45-29

Up next: vs. Ravens

Whether quarterback Brock Purdy or running back Christian McCaffrey is more deserving of the NFL Most Valuable Player Award is a worthwhile debate, but it overshadows just how complete this team is. San Francisco has won six straight games by 12 points or more, a streak last accomplished by the 2009 Saints, who won the Super Bowl. There is just one other team that might belong in the same tier, and it heads to the Bay Area on Christmas night.

2. Ravens (11-3, No. 2)

Last week: Win vs. Jaguars, 23-7

Up next: at 49ers

The Ravens clinched a playoff berth Sunday night and are the favorites to claim the AFC’s top seed, but there’s a sense this team still has something to prove. An MVP-worthy performance from Lamar Jackson and a punishing ground game was enough to secure a fairly comfortable win over Jacksonville, but the Ravens benefitted from several Jaguars mistakes and were fortunate to escape the first half without giving up any points. Will the defense be able to hold up against a 49ers offense led by a dizzying array of playmakers? Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has done an excellent job getting the most out of his unit so far, but Monday night will be the biggest test of his Ravens tenure.

3. Miami Dolphins (10-4, No. 6)

Last week: Win vs. Jets, 30-0

Up next: vs. Cowboys

After last week’s stunning collapse against the Titans, there were plenty of doubts about the Dolphins’ legitimacy as Super Bowl contenders. Sunday’s big win didn’t completely erase those concerns, but it certainly provides confidence that Miami is still a force to be reckoned with, even without injured wide receiver Tyreek Hill. It was an impressive bounce-back performance from a gut-wrenching loss that could have lingered.

4. Detroit Lions (10-4, No. 7)

Last week: Win vs. Broncos, 42-17

Up next: at Vikings

The Lions are knocking on the door of their first division title since 1993 and first postseason berth since 2016, but the real magic would come afterward. Detroit has only one playoff victory since the franchise won the NFL title in 1957. That incredible streak could finally end if Jared Goff and the offense continue to play at a high level and the defense creeps closer to league average.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5, No. 5)

Last week: Win vs. Patriots, 27-17

Up next: vs. Raiders

It’s a testament to quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ greatness that the Chiefs have been able to produce one of the league’s best offenses without being able to trust their wide receivers. But that lack of trust has knocked Kansas City from an unimpeachable Super Bowl contender to a team that no longer feels like a lock to reach the conference title game for the sixth straight season. We might finally see Mahomes play a road playoff game.

6. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4, No. 4)

Last week: Loss vs. Seahawks, 20-17

Up next: vs. Giants

Three straight losses to begin December doesn’t bode well for a team looking to return to the Super Bowl. The defense once again struggled to get off the field in big moments, allowing the Seahawks to convert on third-and-10 or longer four times, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s game-winning touchdown catch with 28 seconds left. Turnovers continue to haunt quarterback Jalen Hurts, who threw two interceptions and averaged just 4.6 yards per attempt.

7. Buffalo Bills (8-6, No. 8)

Last week: Win vs. Cowboys, 31-10

Up next: at Chargers

The firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey last month raised plenty of eyebrows, but Sunday’s dominant win showed that it might have been the right decision. The Bills had not leaned on their running game the way they did against Dallas, piling up 266 yards on 49 carries, including a career-high 179 yards from running back James Cook. Taking the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands is not usually a recipe for success, but Buffalo has achieved much better balance under interim coordinator Joe Brady.

8. Dallas Cowboys (10-4, No. 3)

Last week: Loss vs. Bills, 31-10

Up next: at Dolphins

Is there any reason we should trust coach Mike McCarthy or quarterback Dak Prescott at this point? After uplifting wins over the Seahawks and Eagles, it felt like the Cowboys were turning a corner and ready to make a Super Bowl run. But Sunday’s humbling loss raises old questions about this team’s ability to punch above its weight class.

9. Cleveland Browns (9-5, No. 9)

Last week: Win vs. Bears, 20-17

Up next: at Texans

Is it possible the banged-up Browns win a playoff game? A loss on a Hail Mary after storming back to take the lead might have happened to the old Browns, but this year’s team has shown resilience week after week in overcoming injuries and poor quarterback play. Joe Flacco has been a stabilizing force, and the defense is playing well enough to keep the team in every game.

10. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6, No. 11)

Last week: Win vs. Vikings, 27-24 (OT)

Up next: at Steelers

The Bengals have an uphill climb to reach the postseason, especially if star wideout Ja’Marr Chase and defensive tackle DJ Reader remain sidelined with injuries, but they sure are making it interesting. Jake Browning is 3-1 as the starter since replacing Joe Burrow, including a pair of comeback wins that have kept faint playoff hopes alive.

11. Los Angeles Rams (7-7, No. 12)

Last week: Win vs. Commanders, 28-20

Up next: vs. Saints

It sure would be fun to see Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp back in the postseason with the way they’re playing right now. The Rams have a 49% chance of earning a playoff berth, according to The New York Times’ simulator, but that would climb to 70% with a win over the Saints on Thursday night.

12. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6, No. 10)

Last week: Loss vs. Ravens, 23-7

Up next: at Buccaneers

An ugly loss to the Ravens, the Jaguars’ third straight, went from bad to worse when quarterback Trevor Lawrence entered concussion protocol after the game. It’s been a disappointing finish for Jacksonville, which is now in a tight race for the AFC South title with three weeks to go after taking a commanding lead earlier in the season.

13. Houston Texans (8-6, No. 13)

Last week: Win vs. Titans, 19-16 (OT)

Up next: vs. Browns

DeMeco Ryans continued to build his Coach of the Year case with a comeback win over the Titans while missing quarterback C.J. Stroud and several key players. If Stroud can return this week from a concussion, Houston has a chance to throw a wrench into the playoff race and perhaps give one of the top seeds a scare in the wild-card round.

14. Indianapolis Colts (8-6, No. 15)

Last week: Win vs. Steelers, 30-13

Up next: at Falcons

The Colts have seemed to hover on the outside of the playoff discussion all season, but they’ve earned some respect after winning five of their past six games with a mix of castoffs and ascending young talent. Tyler Goodson, Trey Sermon and D.J. Montgomery had barely played this season before helping lead Saturday’s crucial win over Pittsburgh.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, No. 18)

Last week: Win vs. Packers, 34-20

Up next: vs. Jaguars

Has Baker Mayfield earned a lucrative extension? The former No. 1 overall draft pick became just the third quarterback in NFL history to record 375 passing yards, four touchdown passes and a perfect 158.3 passer rating in a road game Sunday at Lambeau Field. The 28-year-old is enjoying a late-career renaissance and could lift Tampa Bay to a surprise division title.

16. Seattle Seahawks (7-7, No. 19)

Last week: Win vs. Eagles, 20-17

Up next: at Titans

With Geno Smith sidelined by a groin injury, backup quarterback Drew Lock might have saved Seattle’s season, leading a 10-play, 92-yard touchdown drive in the final minutes to end a four-game losing streak. Kenneth Walker III enjoyed one of his most productive games of the season, and the defense stood tall after being picked apart in recent weeks. If the Seahawks find a way into the postseason, they could be a dangerous opponent.

17. New Orleans Saints (7-7, No. 23)

Last week: Win vs. Giants, 24-6

Up next: at Rams

It turns out the Giants’ secondary was the cure for what ailed the Saints’ offense, as Derek Carr was a nearly perfect 23-for-28 for 238 yards and three touchdowns Sunday. New Orleans has a chance to put a disappointing midseason stretch in the rearview mirror if it can win out and secure the NFC South title.

18. Denver Broncos (7-7, No. 14)

Last week: Loss vs. Lions, 42-17

Up next: vs. Patriots

Turnover luck was a big reason for the Broncos’ recent resurgence, but the defense wasn’t so fortunate Saturday as the Lions piled up 448 total yards and scored touchdowns on six of their final seven possessions. With its playoff chances down to 21%, according to The New York Times, Denver is heading toward an uncomfortable offseason.

19. Minnesota Vikings (7-7, No. 17)

Last week: Loss vs. Bengals, 27-24 (OT)

Up next: vs. Lions

The Vikings have decided to give quarterback Nick Mullens another start, which is a scary proposition for a team clinging to a postseason spot. The fifth-year veteran is just 5-13 as a starter and has thrown nearly as many interceptions (25) as touchdown passes (29), but Minnesota might need to lean into that variance in the hopes of pulling off a few upsets.

20. Green Bay Packers (6-8, No. 16)

Last week: Loss vs. Buccaneers, 34-20

Up next: at Panthers

Two weeks ago, the Packers were coming off three straight wins over the Chargers, Lions and Chiefs and looked poised to be one of the most dangerous wild-card teams in the NFC. But back-to-back losses to the Giants and Bucs have dealt a critical blow to Green Bay’s postseason hopes and raise deep concerns about a defense that ranks as one of the league’s worst.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7, No. 20)

Last week: Loss vs. Colts, 30-13

Up next: vs. Bengals

Even when the Steelers were winning, it was often by the slimmest of margins. With backup Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, there has been virtually no room for error, and the defense has been unable to sustain its high level. It’s added up to three straight losses that have knocked Pittsburgh to the bottom of the playoff race.

22. Las Vegas Raiders (6-8, No. 28)

Last week: Win vs. Chargers, 63-21

Up next: at Chiefs

Four days after an embarrassing 3-0 loss to the Vikings, the Raiders scored a franchise-record 63 points. That included 42 in the first half, which according to NFL Research are the most ever by a team coming off a shutout. It’s too little, too late in the crowded playoff race, but it’s a point in interim coach Antonio Pierce’s favor if he seeks the full-time job.

23. Chicago Bears (5-9, No. 21)

Last week: Loss vs. Browns, 20-17

Up next: vs. Cardinals

You have to feel bad for Justin Fields, who was a dropped Hail Mary pass away from putting an exclamation point on his quest to remain the starting quarterback in 2024. The heartbreaking ending overshadows a valiant performance from a Bears defense that recorded three sacks and three interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown.

24. Atlanta Falcons (6-8, No. 22)

Last week: Loss vs. Panthers, 9-7

Up next: vs. Colts

A frustrating season reached its low point Sunday as the Falcons could only muster a touchdown against the league’s worst team while fighting for a division title. Whether it’s his mishandling of young quarterback Desmond Ridder or the ineffectiveness of an offense that boasts plenty of exciting young talent, coach Arthur Smith deserves plenty of blame for how poorly this season has gone.

25. Tennessee Titans (5-9, No. 24)

Last week: Loss vs. Texans, 19-16 (OT)

Up next: vs. Seahawks

With the Titans eliminated from the postseason and rookie quarterback Will Levis dealing with a high-ankle sprain, attention turns toward what could be a transformative offseason. Tennessee has 20 players set to hit free agency, including running back Derrick Henry and defensive starters Denico Autry, Azeez Al-Shaair and Sean Murphy-Bunting.

26. New York Jets (5-9, No. 25)

Last week: Loss vs. Dolphins, 30-0

Up next: vs. Commanders

Coach Robert Saleh said quarterback Aaron Rodgers wants to play after he suffered a torn Achilles tendon in Week 1, but that would be a terrible decision now that the Jets have been eliminated from playoff contention for the 13th straight season. New York needs Rodgers healthy for what’s shaping up to be a pivotal 2024 for Saleh, his staff and the front office.

27. New York Giants (5-9, No. 26)

Last week: Loss vs. Saints, 24-6

Up next: at Eagles

The three-game winning streak behind rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito was a nice respite during an otherwise forgettable season, but Sunday’s loss showed how much work coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen have left to do to build a sustainable winner. It remains to be seen if running back Saquon Barkley will be part of that future.

28. Los Angeles Chargers (5-9, No. 27)

Last week: Loss vs. Raiders, 63-21

Up next: vs. Bills

An embarrassing loss in Las Vegas signaled the end for coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco, ushering in a new era for a team at a crossroads. Although Justin Herbert is one of the league’s top quarterbacks, a messy salary cap situation, fan apathy and few long-term building blocks might not make this job very appealing to the best candidates.

29. Arizona Cardinals (3-11, No. 29)

Last week: Loss vs. 49ers, 49-25

Up next: at Bears

The score looks ugly, but the Cardinals did not play that poorly Sunday, rushing for 234 yards and controlling time of possession against one of the league’s best defenses. It’s an encouraging sign for first-year coach Jonathan Gannon, whose defense also held up fairly well against San Francisco’s vaunted rushing attack.

30. Washington Commanders (4-10, No. 30)

Last week: Loss vs. Rams, 28-20

Up next: at Jets

It’s easy to play the “what if” game after quarterback Jacoby Brissett led two late touchdown drives against the Rams, but Washington needed to see what it had in Sam Howell this season, even if it meant sacrificing the chance to win more games. It’s hard to get a read on what this team will look like in 2024 after expected changes to the coaching staff and the roster, and Howell’s regression over the past few weeks only adds to the pile of lingering questions.

31. New England Patriots (3-11, No. 31)

Last week: Loss vs. Chiefs, 27-17

Up next: at Broncos

This is probably the worst season of coach Bill Belichick’s tenure in New England, but there are some reasons for optimism. Injured stars Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez will return next season to a defense that has still played at a relatively high level despite their absences, and a highly drafted rookie could be the team’s long-term answer at quarterback. It’s not unreasonable to think the Patriots could be back in playoff contention this time next season.

32. Carolina Panthers (2-12, No. 32)

Last week: Win vs. Falcons, 9-7

Up next: vs. Packers

The Panthers at least have something to build on after rookie quarterback Bryce Young led the game-winning drive Sunday and didn’t turn the ball over despite sloppy conditions. Though Carolina fell well short of competing for a division title this season, there is hope that 2024 will be different with a new coach and roster upgrades in free agency and the draft.