Ravens vs. Rams scouting report for Week 14: Who has the edge?
The Ravens hold a two-game lead in the AFC North coming off their bye week. The Rams beat the Cleveland Browns, 36-19. Who will have the advantage when they meet Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium?
Ravens passing game vs. Rams pass defense
Lamar Jackson started hot but ultimately struggled against pressure in his first full game without his favorite target, tight end Mark Andrews. Isaiah Likely filled in effectively for Andrews, leading the team with 40 receiving yards and showing off how dynamic he can be after the catch. But it’s an open question whom Jackson will target in tight spots against the more dangerous opponents the Ravens will face over the next five weeks. Five receivers caught at least two passes against the Chargers, but no one caught more than five or reached even 50 yards. Rookie Zay Flowers leads the team in targets, catches and receiving yards. Former Ram Odell Beckham Jr. has come on lately with 13 catches for 246 yards and two scores over his past four games. Jackson and Beckham have gouged opponents with slants, which could be a valuable weapon against a defense that does not excel at covering short passes over the middle. The Ravens will need a better game from left tackle Ronnie Stanley, who allowed six pressures against the Chargers after he missed the previous week with a knee injury.
The Rams rank 27th in pressures and 24th in sacks. Defensive coordinator Raheem Morris is not blitz-happy, sending extra rushers on just 24% of dropbacks. At age 32, defensive tackle Aaron Donald isn’t quite the game wrecker he was in his prime, but he will still present a profound challenge to the Ravens’ interior blockers. He leads the Rams with six sacks, 13 tackles for loss and 21 quarterback hits. Nose tackle Kobie Turner (5 1/2 sacks) is also a powerful interior rusher. The Rams are not as talented on the edges or in the secondary, where cornerback Cobie Durant is a vulnerable target. They rank 30th in takeaways, 19th on third down and 14th in the red zone.
EDGE: Even
Rams passing game vs. Ravens pass defense
Matthew Stafford seems recovered from the thumb injury that hampered him in November and remains a dynamic passer at age 35. He threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns last Sunday against the Browns. Stafford has found a new favorite receiver in rookie Puka Nacua, who already has 77 catches on 118 targets for 1,029 yards in 12 games. Nacua seems to create separation no matter who’s covering him and has supplanted Cooper Kupp, who has averaged just 27.7 receiving yards over his past six games as he’s battled hamstring and ankle injuries. Former Raven Demarcus Robinson produced his best game of the season against the Browns with four catches for 55 yards. Stafford gets rid of the ball quickly and has taken a modest 20 sacks in 11 games.
He will face a Ravens defense that leads the league with 47 sacks and ranks first in DVOA against the pass, allowing just 4.2 yards per attempt. Fifteen Ravens have dropped opposing quarterbacks, led by defensive tackle Justin Madubuike (10 sacks, 21 quarterback hits) and outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney (7 1/2 sacks, 17 quarterback hits). The Ravens have excelled at preventing the deep ball and also rank third in the red zone. They’re more vulnerable on short passes over the middle but only relatively. Safety Kyle Hamilton is a Pro Bowl candidate capable of filling any role. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey is on target to play against the Rams after missing two games because of a calf strain.
EDGE: Ravens
Ravens running game vs. Rams run defense
The Ravens lead the league in rushing and rank second in yards per carry after they rolled up 197 yards in their win over the Chargers. Rookie Keaton Mitchell has added a big-play jolt to coordinator Todd Monken’s game plans, averaging 9.3 yards per carry. He complements Gus Edwards’ efficient work in short yardage and at the goal line, while the whole operation hinges on the defensive attention Jackson (5.1 yards per carry, five touchdowns) draws. Flowers also got in on the fun with a 37-yard touchdown run against the Chargers. Monken has effectively mixed up his run calls in recent weeks, using more zone and spread concepts than his predecessor, Greg Roman.
The Rams rank 21st in DVOA against the run and gave up an average of 167.3 yards in losses to the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. On the other hand, they have won three straight and held opponents under 100 rushing yards in each game. In other words, they will hope to keep the Ravens from jumping to a lead and grinding them down. Linebacker Ernest Jones leads the team in tackles and ranks among the best run defenders at his position. Donald is known more for his all-time great pass rushing, but he and Turner are solid against the run.
EDGE: Ravens
Rams running game vs. Ravens run defense
The Rams are known as a pass-first team because of Stafford and their prolific receivers, but they have actually been more efficient on the ground this year, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and ranking eighth in rush DVOA. They have moved away from coach Sean McVay’s vaunted outside zones to a gap scheme that emphasizes power and uses motion to create double teams at the point of attack. Kyren Williams has averaged 5.1 yards per carry and 85.9 yards per game. Backup Royce Freeman has been nearly as good, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Right guard Kevin Dotson creates space for them as one of the sport’s best run blockers.
The Rams beat up on Arizona’s porous run defense, doing less damage against playoff-bound opponents such as the 49ers, Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. But they will test the Ravens, who have been out of this world against the pass and merely good against the run. Linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen rebounded to top form in the win over the Chargers. Nose tackle Michael Pierce and defensive tackle Travis Jones have quietly delivered very good seasons on the interior and will need to be stout against the Rams’ power game.
EDGE: Even
Ravens special teams vs. Rams special teams
Justin Tucker hooked a 44-yard field goal attempt outside the left upright in the fourth quarter against the Chargers. His fifth miss of the season dropped him from his customary spot as the most accurate kicker of all time. The Ravens rank 16th in special teams DVOA in part because Tucker has undershot his usual level but more because of spotty punt coverage.
The Rams, meanwhile, rank last in special teams DVOA because of atrocious kicking and punt coverage. They signed kicker Lucas Havrisik off the Browns’ practice squad to replace struggling veteran Brett Maher, but he’s missed three field goal attempts and an extra point try in five games. The Rams’ opponents have averaged 11.7 yards on punt returns and 30.3 yards on kickoff returns. The Rams signed veteran kicker Mason Crosby to their practice squad Wednesday as a possible alternative to Havrisik.
EDGE: Ravens
Ravens intangibles vs. Rams intangibles
The Ravens came off their bye week with a two-game lead in the AFC North and control of their own destiny as they aim to be the AFC’s No. 1 seed. They will hold a significant rest advantage over the Rams, who hosted the Browns last Sunday and will have to travel cross country for a 1 p.m. game. They’re relatively healthy, with Andrews the only key player likely to be unavailable Sunday. Coach John Harbaugh’s Ravens have matched up well with McVay’s Rams, blowing them out in 2019 and nearly upsetting a Super Bowl-bound team in 2021 despite Jackson’s absence.
The Rams have plenty to play for in their own right after putting themselves back in playoff contention with that three-game winning streak. McVay is one of the league’s best coaches, and his team will always be dangerous as long as Stafford is slinging passes and Donald is crashing the pocket. They’re 3-3 on the road.
EDGE: Ravens
Prediction
Can the Ravens continue their pattern of blowing out mid-tier NFC contenders at home? The Rams, with an efficient running game and stars in Stafford and Donald, are no pushovers. But the Ravens have the defense and running game to beat them down over four quarters, especially given their rest advantage. Ravens 27, Rams 17
